Market Gain vs. Share Gain

A business growing 8% per year in a market growing 10% is underperforming. A business growing 8% per year in a market shrinking 3% is outperforming — but on a clock. The buyer's commercial team distinguishes between the two because they underwrite future earnings differently. Market gain gets extrapolated forward: the business is riding a wave that continues. Share gain gets discounted: the business is taking a larger slice of a shrinking pie, and the math eventually runs out. Founders rarely know which kind of growth they have, because from inside the business, both look identical. Revenue goes up. Customers keep buying. The distinction only becomes visible when someone plots the business's growth line against the addressable market's growth line — and that someone is usually a junior analyst on the buyer's deal team, working from third-party data the founder never bothered to pull. The data is typically available through industry associations, government databases, and commercial real estate reports the founder may already pay for.